CA Home Solutions Business Illustrations Forecasting


Expanding the Dialogue with CA Tools:
Accurate Revenue Forecasting

Problem: A $400M technology company suffered a costly stumble in its growth plans. While the executive team experienced themselves as open, much of the stumble was attributable to their inability to be more open and truthful about projected revenue for the company.

Initial Strategy - "Go Along to Win": To meet Wall Street growth and earnings expectations the CEO strongly advocated that lines of business would win several possible deals, thus substantially increasing the sales forecasts beyond those initially provided by his sales executives.

This expectation of higher revenues and earnings permitted some executives to increase costs, with the rationale of maintaining expected profit margins. While many of the senior executives recognized the unintended business problems of misrepresentation associated with this strategy immediately, none dared speak for concern of being cast as a poor team player without the determination to achieve the common goal. Even as the year progressed and their fears materialized in flat sales growth, declining margins and a plummeting market cap, they remained silent.

Breakthrough: “I knew that revising my divisions' revenue projections based on the CEO's optimism was a mistake,” said one unit president during a breakthrough executive team meeting. This and other previously withheld comments were declared only after Collaborative Action had transferred some concrete CA tools and skills to members of the executive team. The following shifts occurred in the actions of executive team members:

  1. Using these new tools, the executive team created a safer and more effective working environment, thus allowing more truth telling with substantially lower political risk.

  2. The team learned how to more publicly and safely acknowledge their dilemma -- their need not to be judged negatively by the CEO for speaking openly -- AND their desire to act in the company's best interests.

  3. One or more of the executive team members was able to raise this dilemma and its subsequent unintended consequences with the CEO.

Outcome: The CEO accepted the input. Together, the senior executives quickly created a safe, open forum for discussion. The executives were then able to present data confirming their suspicions and within weeks, the senior executives determined that the definition of sales forecast had subtly shifted from one based on the probability of revenue to one based on the possibility of revenue. They then revised the forecasting model, which led to restructuring the business to regain profitability based on more predictable revenue expectations.


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